Predicting Ice Melting Needs, a Guide for Distributors

Key takeaways:
• Jan/san distributors should plan ice melt inventory around multiple winter-demand scenarios, maintain comfortable stock levels, and replenish proactively rather than relying on last season’s weather.
• Strong, year-round manufacturer partnerships and early-order programs help distributors secure supply, respond to regional shortages, and shift inventory as weather patterns change.
• Distributors can add value by guiding facilities toward deicing solutions based on total cost of ownership—including surface protection, corrosion, environmental impact, and maintenance—not just price per bag.

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What are the biggest mistakes commercial facilities make when estimating their seasonal ice melt requirements, and how can distributors help prevent them? 

Ihme — I never put the blame on estimates as ice melt is a seasonal product. You must look at what you can comfortably stock, but then maintain your stock as the season goes along. Always stay ahead. 

Gedi — One of the most common mistakes is assuming the upcoming winter will resemble the previous winter. Weather variability has increased significantly, making single-year comparisons less reliable than they once were. 

Another frequent mistake is focusing only on the initial purchase price of a deicing product. Although upfront cost matters, it represents only one part of the overall winter maintenance investment. Facilities should also consider the potential costs associated with surface deterioration, corrosion, landscaping impacts, and additional maintenance efforts throughout and after the winter season. 

From a technical standpoint, not all deicing chemistries interact with surfaces and surrounding environments in the same way. As facilities become more focused on asset preservation and lifecycle costs, product selection is increasingly becoming part of the overall risk-management conversation. 

Distributors can help customers avoid these challenges by discussing multiple winter scenarios, reviewing historical consumption data, and evaluating total cost of ownership rather than acquisition cost alone. 

How can distributors work with manufacturers to ensure reliable replenishment during periods of regional shortages or transportation disruptions? 

Ihme — The time is now to fill up distribution warehouses. There are early order discounts available and delayed billing to get distribution prepared. The distributors who take advantage of these programs will win out in the end. Stay ahead of the season and don’t wait to replenish.   

Gedi — The strongest manufacturer-distributor relationships are built on transparency, communication, and long-term planning. Distributors should share customer forecasts, growth expectations, market intelligence, and seasonal demand projections throughout the year. This visibility allows manufacturers to make more informed decisions regarding production scheduling, inventory positioning, and transportation planning. Regular communication becomes particularly important during winter weather events when regional demand patterns can shift rapidly. 

From both a logistics and customer-service perspective, the most resilient supply chains are those where manufacturers and distributors operate as strategic partners rather than separate entities reacting independently to market conditions. The earlier both parties begin planning, the more effectively they can respond when weather creates unexpected demand. 

How have shifting weather patterns over the past five to 10 years changed regional demand for ice melt across the United States? 

Ihme — Most manufacturers will prepare for the entire country based on forecasts from previous seasons. For example, had we forecasted for just the East last year, we would have lost. Because we forecast for the entire U.S., we were able to pivot to the East when there was nothing in the West. That is why it is important to partner with at least one supplier that can handle the entire country and not just locally.  

Winter weather is coming later, which means we are shipping later and later each season. Distributors have to invest in their business and adapt to the changing conditions. 

Gedi — The most significant trend has been increased variability rather than simply more or less snowfall. Many regions are experiencing more frequent fluctuations between mild temperatures and sudden winter weather events. This volatility creates forecasting challenges and places greater emphasis on preparedness, inventory flexibility, and responsive supply chains. 

From a technical perspective, increased freeze-thaw activity is also influencing customer priorities. Repeated freezing and thawing cycles can create additional stress on infrastructure, leading many facilities to pay closer attention to long-term surface protection and maintenance considerations as part of their winter management strategy. As a result, customers are increasingly evaluating winter solutions based on both performance and operational impact. 

Which parts of the country are experiencing the biggest changes in purchasing behavior because of more frequent freeze-thaw cycles, heavier snow events, or milder winters? 

Gedi — While the Midwest and Northeast remain the largest consumers of deicing products, some of the most significant changes in purchasing behavior are occurring in transition markets. 

The Mid-Atlantic, portions of the Southeast, and South-Central regions have experienced several disruptive winter events over the past decade, leading many organizations to reassess preparedness strategies and maintain larger contingency inventories. 

In northern markets, customers are increasingly focused on balancing performance with infrastructure preservation. As facilities experience more frequent freeze-thaw cycles and place greater emphasis on long-term asset management, distributors are seeing increased interest in solutions that support both safety and facility protection. 

Across virtually every region, preparedness, reliability, and total lifecycle cost have become more important considerations in purchasing decisions. 

How should distributors adjust their inventory strategy when weather forecasts become increasingly difficult to predict from season to season? 

Ihme — There is nothing you can say to a distributor that will change their buying habits on a seasonal item. We encourage them to stock as much as they feel comfortable with and then to stay ahead of the season. Hopefully they have partnered with a manufacturer that can supply them year-round and not just during prime time.  

Gedi — Rather than building inventory plans around a single weather forecast, distributors should develop multiple demand scenarios, including mild, average, and severe winter conditions. Historical demand trends, customer growth projections, replenishment capabilities, and service-level objectives should all factor into planning decisions. 

Equally important is maintaining ongoing communication with customers and manufacturing partners throughout the season. Forecasts will always contain uncertainty, but visibility into changing market conditions allows organizations to make more informed adjustments as winter unfolds. 

From both a commercial and technical perspective, distributors should also recognize that customers are becoming more sophisticated in their purchasing decisions. Many organizations are evaluating deicing solutions based not only on melting performance, but also on factors such as infrastructure protection, environmental impact, maintenance requirements, and overall cost of ownership. 

Ultimately, the distributors that consistently outperform the market are not necessarily those that forecast winter weather most accurately. They are the organizations that combine proactive planning, strong customer engagement, technical expertise, and supply chain agility to deliver reliable solutions regardless of what winter brings. 

Corinne Zudonyi has been in the commercial cleaning industry for over 20 years and is proud to serve as Editor-In-Chief of Contracting Profits (the official publication of BSCAI), Facility Cleaning Decisions, and Sanitary Maintenance (the North American media partner of Interclean Amsterdam) magazines, publications that serve the professional cleaning industry. Additionally, Corinne manages CleanLink.com, the leading digital resource for the commercial cleaning industry, and she uses her industry knowledge to steer educational topics for Clean Buildings at NFMT East.  
Corinne is the sole U.S. representative to serve on the international Interclean Amsterdam Innovation Jury, where she weighs in on product trends impacting commercial cleaning on a global scale. She also works closely with Healthy Green Schools & Colleges to advance healthy and sustainable cleaning in educational facilities. As a member of the CLEAN Awards Jury, through Building Service Contractors Association International, Corinne also helps recognize cleaning contractors and their companies for outstanding service to the industry.  
Corinne can commonly be found moderating industry panel discussions, presenting education, and focusing on bringing awareness and affirmation for the wonderful work that people do to keep facilities clean and building occupants safe and healthy.  
Follow Corinne on LinkedIn here.   

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Ice Melt Inventory Plans to Combat Winter Weather