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-1072896682Cleanlink News 12/11/2009
Flu Pandemic Could Be Milder Than Expected
Experts warn that the flu is notoriously unpredictable, but several recent analyses, including one released late Monday, indicate that the death toll is likely to be far lower than the number of fatalities caused by past pandemics, according to an article in the Washington Post.
The analysis, based on data collected in New York City and Milwaukee, indicates that the virus may directly cause 6,000 to 45,000 deaths by the end of the winter, with the final toll probably falling between 10,000 and 15,000. That is far lower than the estimated 30,000 to 90,000 deaths predicted earlier this year by a presidential advisory panel. A typical flu season is associated with an average of 36,000 deaths in the United States.
One major reason for the relatively low death toll is that the elderly have largely been unaffected, apparently because many have some immunity against the disease. The 36,000 deaths blamed on a typical flu season include many that are caused by heart attacks, strokes and other complications associated with the flu among seniors and people with other health problems. About 9,000 deaths are directly caused by the influenza virus during a typical flu season.
But other factors may also be playing a role, including the virus being less likely to cause illness than viruses involved in previous pandemics, as well as better medical care available than in previous decades, such as antiviral drugs and more sophisticated intensive-care techniques.
Despite the varying numbers, H1N1 vacciniations are still encouraged.
To read the full article, click here.
